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Hey Doc,
I emailed you a while back about training in Shaolin. Dont worry, I've decided to fit it into my college schedule rather than taking a year off like I said I might do. Anyway, I was all ready to go this summer until the SARS virus hit. Now, I just want to know if you know how serious SARS is in the Shaolin area and if you think going to China this summer is big risk. I'm willing to go but some friends and family are hesistant. Thanks for your time Doc.
xxxxx
Well, it's hard to tell from the news. When I was in Beijing in early March, I noticed a hell of a lot of ill people running around, yet, at that time, the news was just informing us that SARs was this "new" thing that was found only in Hanoi and Hong Kong. After I got ill (and my girlfriend and my friend Yong got ill), I decided to leave. I got hit with a pneumonia like I had never experienced before, both with respect to severity and rapidity of onset. It was a bit frightening, to say the least. The gastrointestinal and cardiac symptoms that I experienced over the next few weeks, while the pneumonia was resolving, and, the recent gastric biopsy that I had that demonstrated gastric inflammation, made the whole picture look like some bad viral illness, very consistent with SARS (there was no serological testing when I was ill, and still isn't any available on a widespread commercial basis). The SARS thing is not well understood, nor is it adequately diagnosed. But, current thinking dictates that if you have a serious viral infection that meets the recent CDC guidelines, and, you've traveled in Asia, more than likely it was SARS.
I don't want to go through that again. I certainly wouldn't suggest that anyone take the chance of getting it either.
If you haven't read the Shaolin Journals section, in which I talk about my last trip to China, you should. The point being, that I was proposing on the site, back in March, that this epidemic thing was more widespread than what China or the news was saying. In hindsight, I was right. The underestimation of the severity of the epidemic was sad; but, it's really hard to blame anyone for the lack of proper statistics. When you consider the fact that most people in China, when they become ill, either just stay at home and either "get better" or "die", or, they tend to get their medical care from village doctors or nurses or clinics, or city TCM pharmacies, all of which do not keep adequate patient records, you understand that it is almost impossible for city officials to keep any sort of proper statistical analysis of the spread of the disease. In fact, the patients keep the records themselves; the health department has no idea what's going on. Few people go to the hospital where internal records are kept. In a situation such as this, it is almost impossible to keep adequate and representative statistics on the extent of a community wide illness. I think that if you read the emails that I've gotten from friends in Beijing, in the Journals section, you'll get an idea of severity of this epidemic.
The death rate of Sars they say is about 20%, that is horrible,isn't it? I still cough sometimes, something wrong with my lungs I guess, but I won't go to hospital to check these days. Few people are on the street, but it's warm outside.
"Few people are on the street". It reminds me of the fear laden society in Thailand, a community that really wasn't exposed to the SARS virus like those in Beijing were, but still, avoided any sort of indoor community gathering. Movie theaters and supermarkets were empty; even the famed Songkran festival was not well populated in Phuket this year. Granted, people might be over-reacting to this, especially when you consider the fact that, out of a population of 1.3 billion people, only seven thousand or so have been "diagnosed" with SARS. With somewhere around five hundred fatalities. Or, so they think....
As for the actual numbers, who's to know. I think the statistics are grossly underestimated. I think it's far more widespread than what they're saying. But, that's my opinion, from my observations.
But let's consider the possibility that there are only seven thousand or so SARS infections in China. The odds then, are very rare for you to even run into someone who is infected. And, from what I learned, close contact is necessary for infection. You're not going to get it walking by someone on the street; you might get it sitting next to an infected person in an airplane, a restaurant, or a movie theater. And considering the fact that this virus can live on inanimate objects for over four hours, (and some feel possibly 24 hours), the possibility of transmission by that route is significant. So, what's the chances of getting this? Hell, I never expected to get sick when I went to Beijing; in fact, I went to Beijing to heal from the onslaught of asthma producing pollen in Las Vegas. I guess I was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. What are the chances that you will be too?
Who knows. You might go to Shaolin and never see an ill person. Then again, you might sit in the same sleeper car on the train from Beijing to Zengzhou with some infected person, and then, it's a draw of the veritable cards. With a ten percent death rate, and quite possibly even higher, the odds of survival are definitely in your favor, but, is it worth taking that risk? Personally, I don't think so.
To put this into perspective, just think of the scenario that some really hot girl wants to sleep with you, but, if you do, you have to accept the possibility that there is a ten or twenty percent chance that she will get pregnant, and, subsequently hound you financially and otherwise, for the rest of your life. And, her mother is a bitch from hell. Is it worth it?
I was thinking of returning to Shaolin this summer. I didn't get a chance to train this past time; I was just too damn ill. I had enough trouble just walking up a flight of stairs. But, at this point, I'm not sure. These highly infectious viral epidemics, can go one of two ways; they can either burn themselves out fairly rapidly, or, they can mutate as they go along, and continue on for a year or two. I tend to think that this thing will burn itself out by the summer. I'm not sure why, I just think that it's going to burn it's way through the population fairly quickly, people will get sick, some will die, most will just get immune to it. And, it will die out. But, there's a hell of a lot of people in China for this to burn through, especially if they don't continue with their quarantine measures. I think, that at this point, it's hard to say.
One might say, that going to Shaolin, without stopping in Beijing might be safe. Granted, once you're in Dengfeng, up in the mountains, in the sparsely populated areas that you're going to train in, you'll be fine. But, also consider this. If you're training at a large center such as Tagou, with eight thousand little fellows all sleeping in close proximity, just think about how fast one sick individual in that crowd could infect the entire school. With you in it. (I tend to train privately with the monks up in the mountains, a much safer practice when it comes to dealing with communicable diseases). The SARS infection rate might be really, really low in Dengfeng; in fact, you might not even see an ill person there. But, you have to travel to get there, and therein lies the potential problem.
My recommendation is to NOT go. I say this for one reason. The chances of you're getting ill are probably fairly low, if you believe the news reports. If you don't believe them, and tend more to believe my interpretation that it's more widespread (based upon the emails that I get, and my observations from a few months ago), then the risk is even higher. But, forget that, just to prove a point here. If the risk is low, based upon the apparent numbers, more than likely you won't get infected.
But, what if you do....
I'm a physician; I carry all sorts of medications with me when I travel. When I got hit with this damn thing, I dosed myself quickly and strongly, with all the shit that I thought would be appropriate. I'm not a firm believer of Chinese hospitals, having been a "guest physician" in one, two years ago. I'm also not a firm believer in TCM practices over there. If you got ill, and didn't recognize the fact that you had something serious, or, didn't get early and adequate health care, you most likely would end up getting fairly ill. With a ten to twenty percent mortality rate, you're not exactly dealing with something that you just sneeze at and not worry. The risk/benefit ratio in this situation calls for caution. The chances of getting the illness, we think, are low; but, if you did get it, the chances of having a bad outcome are just unacceptable.
Personally, I'm waiting. I want to see how this thing pans out over the next month or so. If I'm not comfortable with the whole idea, I'm not going. I certainly don't want to get a mutated version of this shit again. My seven weeks in Asia were not the usual fun filled doc trouble type of trip; it was a bit frightening, to be that ill, that far away from home. Especially with the overwhelming fear factor that you saw in the general population. It's not the right time to be doing this type of travel. Shaolin will be there in the fall, or next year; it's not going anywhere. My attitude back when I was in Beijing, was to get the hell out and get better; I could always return at a later time to train.
It turned out to be the right attitude. And the right decision.
I emailed you a while back about training in Shaolin. Dont worry, I've decided to fit it into my college schedule rather than taking a year off like I said I might do. Anyway, I was all ready to go this summer until the SARS virus hit. Now, I just want to know if you know how serious SARS is in the Shaolin area and if you think going to China this summer is big risk. I'm willing to go but some friends and family are hesistant. Thanks for your time Doc.
xxxxx
Well, it's hard to tell from the news. When I was in Beijing in early March, I noticed a hell of a lot of ill people running around, yet, at that time, the news was just informing us that SARs was this "new" thing that was found only in Hanoi and Hong Kong. After I got ill (and my girlfriend and my friend Yong got ill), I decided to leave. I got hit with a pneumonia like I had never experienced before, both with respect to severity and rapidity of onset. It was a bit frightening, to say the least. The gastrointestinal and cardiac symptoms that I experienced over the next few weeks, while the pneumonia was resolving, and, the recent gastric biopsy that I had that demonstrated gastric inflammation, made the whole picture look like some bad viral illness, very consistent with SARS (there was no serological testing when I was ill, and still isn't any available on a widespread commercial basis). The SARS thing is not well understood, nor is it adequately diagnosed. But, current thinking dictates that if you have a serious viral infection that meets the recent CDC guidelines, and, you've traveled in Asia, more than likely it was SARS.
I don't want to go through that again. I certainly wouldn't suggest that anyone take the chance of getting it either.
If you haven't read the Shaolin Journals section, in which I talk about my last trip to China, you should. The point being, that I was proposing on the site, back in March, that this epidemic thing was more widespread than what China or the news was saying. In hindsight, I was right. The underestimation of the severity of the epidemic was sad; but, it's really hard to blame anyone for the lack of proper statistics. When you consider the fact that most people in China, when they become ill, either just stay at home and either "get better" or "die", or, they tend to get their medical care from village doctors or nurses or clinics, or city TCM pharmacies, all of which do not keep adequate patient records, you understand that it is almost impossible for city officials to keep any sort of proper statistical analysis of the spread of the disease. In fact, the patients keep the records themselves; the health department has no idea what's going on. Few people go to the hospital where internal records are kept. In a situation such as this, it is almost impossible to keep adequate and representative statistics on the extent of a community wide illness. I think that if you read the emails that I've gotten from friends in Beijing, in the Journals section, you'll get an idea of severity of this epidemic.
The death rate of Sars they say is about 20%, that is horrible,isn't it? I still cough sometimes, something wrong with my lungs I guess, but I won't go to hospital to check these days. Few people are on the street, but it's warm outside.
"Few people are on the street". It reminds me of the fear laden society in Thailand, a community that really wasn't exposed to the SARS virus like those in Beijing were, but still, avoided any sort of indoor community gathering. Movie theaters and supermarkets were empty; even the famed Songkran festival was not well populated in Phuket this year. Granted, people might be over-reacting to this, especially when you consider the fact that, out of a population of 1.3 billion people, only seven thousand or so have been "diagnosed" with SARS. With somewhere around five hundred fatalities. Or, so they think....
As for the actual numbers, who's to know. I think the statistics are grossly underestimated. I think it's far more widespread than what they're saying. But, that's my opinion, from my observations.
But let's consider the possibility that there are only seven thousand or so SARS infections in China. The odds then, are very rare for you to even run into someone who is infected. And, from what I learned, close contact is necessary for infection. You're not going to get it walking by someone on the street; you might get it sitting next to an infected person in an airplane, a restaurant, or a movie theater. And considering the fact that this virus can live on inanimate objects for over four hours, (and some feel possibly 24 hours), the possibility of transmission by that route is significant. So, what's the chances of getting this? Hell, I never expected to get sick when I went to Beijing; in fact, I went to Beijing to heal from the onslaught of asthma producing pollen in Las Vegas. I guess I was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. What are the chances that you will be too?
Who knows. You might go to Shaolin and never see an ill person. Then again, you might sit in the same sleeper car on the train from Beijing to Zengzhou with some infected person, and then, it's a draw of the veritable cards. With a ten percent death rate, and quite possibly even higher, the odds of survival are definitely in your favor, but, is it worth taking that risk? Personally, I don't think so.
To put this into perspective, just think of the scenario that some really hot girl wants to sleep with you, but, if you do, you have to accept the possibility that there is a ten or twenty percent chance that she will get pregnant, and, subsequently hound you financially and otherwise, for the rest of your life. And, her mother is a bitch from hell. Is it worth it?
I was thinking of returning to Shaolin this summer. I didn't get a chance to train this past time; I was just too damn ill. I had enough trouble just walking up a flight of stairs. But, at this point, I'm not sure. These highly infectious viral epidemics, can go one of two ways; they can either burn themselves out fairly rapidly, or, they can mutate as they go along, and continue on for a year or two. I tend to think that this thing will burn itself out by the summer. I'm not sure why, I just think that it's going to burn it's way through the population fairly quickly, people will get sick, some will die, most will just get immune to it. And, it will die out. But, there's a hell of a lot of people in China for this to burn through, especially if they don't continue with their quarantine measures. I think, that at this point, it's hard to say.
One might say, that going to Shaolin, without stopping in Beijing might be safe. Granted, once you're in Dengfeng, up in the mountains, in the sparsely populated areas that you're going to train in, you'll be fine. But, also consider this. If you're training at a large center such as Tagou, with eight thousand little fellows all sleeping in close proximity, just think about how fast one sick individual in that crowd could infect the entire school. With you in it. (I tend to train privately with the monks up in the mountains, a much safer practice when it comes to dealing with communicable diseases). The SARS infection rate might be really, really low in Dengfeng; in fact, you might not even see an ill person there. But, you have to travel to get there, and therein lies the potential problem.
My recommendation is to NOT go. I say this for one reason. The chances of you're getting ill are probably fairly low, if you believe the news reports. If you don't believe them, and tend more to believe my interpretation that it's more widespread (based upon the emails that I get, and my observations from a few months ago), then the risk is even higher. But, forget that, just to prove a point here. If the risk is low, based upon the apparent numbers, more than likely you won't get infected.
But, what if you do....
I'm a physician; I carry all sorts of medications with me when I travel. When I got hit with this damn thing, I dosed myself quickly and strongly, with all the shit that I thought would be appropriate. I'm not a firm believer of Chinese hospitals, having been a "guest physician" in one, two years ago. I'm also not a firm believer in TCM practices over there. If you got ill, and didn't recognize the fact that you had something serious, or, didn't get early and adequate health care, you most likely would end up getting fairly ill. With a ten to twenty percent mortality rate, you're not exactly dealing with something that you just sneeze at and not worry. The risk/benefit ratio in this situation calls for caution. The chances of getting the illness, we think, are low; but, if you did get it, the chances of having a bad outcome are just unacceptable.
Personally, I'm waiting. I want to see how this thing pans out over the next month or so. If I'm not comfortable with the whole idea, I'm not going. I certainly don't want to get a mutated version of this shit again. My seven weeks in Asia were not the usual fun filled doc trouble type of trip; it was a bit frightening, to be that ill, that far away from home. Especially with the overwhelming fear factor that you saw in the general population. It's not the right time to be doing this type of travel. Shaolin will be there in the fall, or next year; it's not going anywhere. My attitude back when I was in Beijing, was to get the hell out and get better; I could always return at a later time to train.
It turned out to be the right attitude. And the right decision.
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